Israel will not presently launch a major military offensive against Gaza..but will it concentrate its energies on attacking Iran?

Of course that is good news that a major offensive against Gaza is off as the Israeli government and media have been hyping the possible offensive for some time. Then suddenly a change of tone and course. Olmert will let the Egyptian negotiations with Hamas run its course. Fine.

But why?

Are we on the verge of a peace breakthrough with the Israelis now simultaneously negotiating with Hezbollah through Germany, Hamas through Egypt and Syria through Turkey… or is all this, as in basketball `faking to the left, while moving to the right’, ie concentrating their military energies on a possible major strike (US and/or Israeli) against Iran this summer. Leave the smaller fish alone and go for `the big one’?

I hope it’s the former but fear it’s the latter. Indeed, although not a betting man – other than wagering repeatedly successfully against the Rockies – I’d bet on it.