France’s Africa policy is in tatters. Gabon military coup – the 8th … or is it the 9th coup in three years; lethal blow to “Francafrique”

French “influence” in Africa is shrinking by the day … or is it by the hour

While it is true that to date it is not obvious what political direction the coup in Gabon will take, nor if structurally, this coup is anything more than a changing of the guard, still, a few points are crystal clear, among them:

• That the people of Gabon are on the streets of their capitol, Libreville, celebrating the downfall of Ali Bongo (whose father Omar, a former low level officer in the French army,  ruled the country from 1967 till 2009). The Bongo family has rule Gabon – in close cooperation with France – for six decades. It appears that the “le régime Bongo” has come to an end. Gabon is a country that is in every way the very incarnation of “Francafrique,” and the Bongo family classic examples of a completely corrupted African ruling family.
• That the Gabon coup is either the 8th (according to one source), or the 9th according to another over the past three years, in  France’s former African colonies, reflecting the profound instability of the neo-colonial model established by De Gaulle and his social mechanic Jacques Foccart, to grant independence to former African colonies while maintaining tight control over these countries’ economic, political and security interests.
• That the French ambassador to Niger, one Sylvain Itte, has been expelled from Niger despite French threats to prevent it from happening, thus upping the ante of tension between France and the military coup leaders
• Regardless of how these coups play out – will they survive, or be defeated by military intervention? – that France’s credibility in Africa – and with it, Pari’s political influence – is collapsing throughout Africa. As Sasha Brege noted in her Global News Roundup. “The Economist notes: two thirds of African coups since the 1990s have been in former French colonies, the Economist meekly opined this week that “France’s Africa policy is in tatters””.
• While almost everywhere in French-speaking Africa the presence of the French army is condemned, the Survie Association, which has watchdogged and criticized French Africa policy for decades, once again calls on Paris to announce a clear and short-term agenda for a complete military withdrawal from the continent.
• My personal take – this is a blow to the stomach not just for France but for the European Union. If Germany will not recover from the Nord Stream II sabotage, and I doubt it will, France, now, sooner or later – and it appears that it will be sooner rather later – will lose its supply of cheap uranium and gold (some of which comes from Gabon). The impact of this double whammy on the already weakening European Union cannot be overemphasized.
• Washington, always on the hunt to absorb French interests in Africa in trouble, is looking to fill the vacuum as is Algeria.

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