Biden Administration’s Attempts To “Informally” Negotiate With Iran, Increase Global Oil Flows Stymied by an AIPAC Pressured Congress

The nerve of Iran to place its country geographically in the region of so many U.S. military bases!

Over the past few days news appeared in U.S. mainstream media sources suggesting that Iran and the United States were seriously considering a deal where in exchange for Washington freeing up some $6 billion in confiscated – that is to say stolen – frozen Iranian funds currently held in South Korea, that Iran would release a number of prisoners. The arrangement itself was quite complex but, at least from the sources cited about, appeared to be moving along.

A consequence of such arrangements, at least as reported in the media, is the hope that in some “unrelated way”, Iran would increase its oil production. In yet another example of what has become nothing short of the schizophrenic nature of U.S. foreign policy, this morning’s news throws a monkey wrench into the plans as in Congress, by an overwhelming vote of 410 for, 3 against approved a measure to impose new sanctions on Iran within the framework of the draft law called the “Mahsa Amini for Human Rights and Security Accountability Act“.

Here we have another vivid example of how in Washington, the right hand seems to be in conflict with the left hand, that the Administration’s efforts to at least give a sign of improving its tattered relations with Iran in an effort to increase global oil production, especially now in the runup to the 2024 presidential elections are meeting strong resistance from Congress. With the Biden Administration speaking with two contradictory voices, how is that the Iranians – or any other foreign entity with which the Biden Administration might be trying to negotiate – can have any confidence whatsoever in the commitments offered? Nor is this anything new for the Iranians who experienced the Obama Administration (along with the China, UK, France, Germany, Russia and the E.U)  negotiate the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the Iran Nuclear Deal as it is referred to in the USA, with Iran only to see the Trump Administration literally tear up this extensive agreement three years later, leaving it in little more than a state of cryonic suspension at best.

Any time that an Administration considers reviving it, usually in part and by small measures, there is Congress, egged on by AIPAC doing Israel’s dirty work as well as the increasingly reactionary elements among Iranian immigrant community in the United States ready to kill any measure that might improve U.S..-Iranian relations, relations that are in shambles. U.S. attempts to quietly de-escalate tensions with Iran come at the same time that Russia and Saudi Arabia have agreed both to limit oil supplies in response to declines in global demand in order to maintain price stability.

Washington’s attempt to place a global cap on oil prices in order to hurt Russia also has failed as major Russian oil consumers, India and China, refused to go along with the deal. As a result, Washington is frantically – and that adjective is an understatement – scouring the world to pressure, encourage other oil producers to pump more oil to counter the measure forcing it to come begging to Iran. Quiet but substantial negotiations with Iran to increase oil production in exchange for easing sanctions have been going on for some time and have produced some results. Iranian oil production has grown from 2.2 million barrels a day (mbd) in 2021 to 3.5 mbd today.

That it is Congress’s goal to undermine the Biden Administration’s softening its anti-Iranian stance was made crystal clear from the statements of Republican Representative Michael McCaul, Chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee who criticized what he called the Biden Administration’s “political agenda” in dealing with the Iranian people. In aggressive language that has become all to commonplace in the increasingly hawkish Congress, McCaul notes that “We (the U.S.) must not sell out the Iranian people in order to reach a bad nuclear agreement.”

The MAHSA law stipulates that the US president must provide Congress an annual assessment of whether sanctions imposed on the Iranian president and supreme leader should be maintained. The law was introduced last January, shortly after the death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old woman, while in police custody in Tehran, sparking  popular protests., some of which demanded legitimate reforms on Iranian laws proscribing the rights of women, but some of the protests that included violent attacks on government institutions were organized with the active interference of foreign provocateurs. The goal of the law is unambiguous: to significantly restrict the ability of current and future U.S. administrations to lift the sanctions. As such, it puts a tight lease on any Administration’s attempt – Democrat or Republican – from successfully negotiating with Iran. A classic example of Washington shooting itself in the foot.

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