Palestine Tet – 7 – Is Gaza Just A Prelude To A Much Wider War, One In Which Washington Will Target Iran, Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon?

Did they talk only about Gaza, Hezbollah on their northern front or are they preparing for much larger scale regional war.

_____________________________

The Biden Administration has argued that this (U.S. naval) armada is “intended to deter” but whom? Hezbollah? Perhaps. But far more likely the Biden Administration is using Israel’s current war against Gaza as a springboard to “finish the job” it has not been able to complete: bringing down, or seriously crippling both Syria and Iran and in so doing, reestablishing the balance of power in the region as it previously existed a decade ago. before Russia, China and Iran increased their presence and influence. Should such an offensive be successful the increasingly precarious position of Israel throughout the region would likewise improve. These are little more than neocon wet dreams.

He who defends everything, defends nothing.

Frederick The Great

____________________________

Is the current Israeli air campaign, its unrelenting bombing of Gaza with the purpose of ethnically cleanse Palestinians from either a part or all of Gaza, simply a prelude to a larger war, one that will draw in the United States?

For years Israel has tried to draw the United States in to its Middle East wars more directly and for years, since 1982 when a truck bomb ignited at a U.S. barracks in Lebanon killing 241 marines in one fell swoop. No, to the degree possible, both Democratic and Republican administrations have preferred using that great assortment of regional proxies – be they Israeli, Arab (Saudi in particular) or groups it tends to publicly disown but privately fund like al Nusra, the Islamic State, etc. Worked in Libya with devastating regional consequences that Washington was well aware of, and nearly worked in Syria, but in the end, didn’t.; the Assad government still stands. Against Iran it hasn’t worked at all, especially given the Chinese arranged reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Furthermore the Saudi’s (as well as the Turks) while still very much in Washington’s geo-political orbit, still have shown a growing political independence especially from the Biden Administration with both countries looking East to Russia and China (and India) for future economic and trade deals are not as willing to play the “good old” U.S. proxy role that so characterized their regional outlook for so long. Add to this that, if one is frank, Israel has taken a beating – no need to exaggerate it but it was a beating both at the hands of Hezbollah in 2006 and the Palestinian Resistance in Gaza in its recent ground incursions.

While it would be a stretch to say that as a result Israel is about to collapse – it isn’t – but its situation is clearly much more vulnerable than it has been anytime since its creation in 1948 and its pleas for Washington to directly support it militarily are growing louder and louder. And this time, both because of this Israeli vulnerability (to fighting a two front war) combined with what Washington understands is a precipitous decline in its regional influence – no greater sign of which was the Arab cancellation of a meeting with Biden when he was in the Middle East recently – there is a growing danger that Washington will take Netanyahu’s bait and involve itself directly in the conflict. Israel will be left to deal with Hamas in Gaza and possibly attack Hezbollah in S. Lebanon, but the Biden Administration will go after bigger targets: Iran and Syria.

It Looks Like We’re Going To War … The Signs Are There.

The signs are there – and not necessarily in the stars as some would have it – but in the oceans. The danger of a major U.S. military involvement is becoming more and more critical all the time.

1. Netanyahu’s “weather delay” tactics probably have more to do with putting the U.S. military machine in place building up its naval presence in the Mediterranean for the coming major war (to attack whom) than any change in the weather. The idea that it is “a deterrent force” is laughable. The United States needs more time to complete its Middle East trop deployment. According to U.S. media reports, Washington is asking Israel to delay its ground offensive in Gaza in order for the United States to deploy air defense missile systems to the Middle East. While the Biden Administration was talking only about deploying air defense missiles but these combine with still further naval deployments.
2. This morning there were reports that two more carrier groups are leaving the United States heading east across the Atlantic. It is not said where they are headed, but it is overwhelmingly obvious that they are headed for the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean, to join the two carrier groups already in place, one in the Eastern Mediterranean, the other in  Red Sea. Far “Carrier groups” – almost half of U.S. naval power soon to be in place in the region. As Alexander Mercouris notes, “That is an enormous buildup.” He goes on to mention that “deploying a carrier group is a massive, enormously complex , extremely expensive, logistical operation.”
3. The aircraft carrier groups join U.S. nuclear submarines that have been deployed “to all kinds of places” since mid April (2023). We’re not being told where but it seems likely that it is connected with the Middle East.  And now surface-to-air missiles, patriots and thad missiles, are also being deployed in the region
4.  The Israeli bombing of Syrian airports of Damascus and Aleppo could be targeting Iran as much as Syria by complicating Iran’s effort to send volunteers to defend Lebanon and Syria and complicating the deliverance of humanitarian aid that might come in by air. It also weakens Syrian military response to Israel should the crisis escalate.
5. Washington has announced that it is sending an additional 900 ground troops to the Middle East, in response to missile attacks against U.S. bases in the region. “Protecting” As is its habit, the Pentagon has accused Iranian-backed militias of carrying out a series of attacks against the roughly 3,400 U.S. forces that remain in Syria and Iraq; 24 U.S. personnel have been injured so far. In total, reports say there are currently about 35,000 U.S. troops throughout the region, though most are stationed at bases in the Gulf, far away from the fighting.

All this entails a huge U.S. military deployment done on an enormous scale.  What can its purpose be?

Its purpose is neither to attack Hamas, which is at best, no more than a militia and one completely outmatched in terms of military hardware and men in arms by the Israeli Defensive Fund. It is simply not credible that this huge naval armada’s focus would be used for this (both for military and political reasons). The Biden Administration has argued that this armada is “intended to deter” but whom? Hezbollah? Perhaps. It’s a force multiple times greater than needed for “a deterrent operation” against a militia like Hamas (or even an army like Hezbollah possesses). Mercouris perceptively notes: “It seems to me overwhelmingly more likely that what we are seeing is an assembly of an enormous force which is intended at some point to be used for some kind of a strike against Iran.”

Far more likely the Biden Administration is using Israel’s current war against Gaza as a springboard to “finish the job” it has not been able to complete: bringing down, or seriously crippling both Syria and Iran. In so doing, reestablishing the balance of power in the region as it previously existed a decade ago. before Russia, China and Iran increased their presence and influence. Should such an offensive be successful the increasingly precarious position of Israel throughout the region would likewise improve. These are little more than neocon wet dreams.

“It seems to me overwhelmingly more likely that what we are seeing is an assembly of an enormous force which is intended at some point to be used for some kind of a strike against Iran.”

In reaction to the September 11, 2003 al Qaeda attack on the United States launched its ill-fated “war on terrorism” the first goal of which was to eliminate al Qaeda’s presence in Afghanistan. Israel has deftly called the Hamas military strike into southern Lebanon as “Israel’s 9/11). The Afghanistan intervention,which lasted twenty years and was a complete military and political failure itself, was actually a pretext for U.S. military assault of Iraq and the overthrow of the government there. More and more the current military confrontation between Israel and the Palestinians, the Palestinian armed resistance against Israel and the Israeli response to savagely kill Gaza civilians, ethnically cleanse Gaza and expel its wounded and traumatized residents into the Egyptian desert is shaping up to be a springboard for Washington’s long held goals of regime change in both Iran and Syria.

Of course all eyes are on the horrors Israel is inflicting on Palestinians in Gaza and we watch as the Biden Administration opposes any and all calls for a ceasefire; indeed calls for a ceasefire are being labelled as supporting Hamas or some such garbage. But the anti-ceasefire logic begins to make cease as it would slow support for the wider war Washington is planning. The Biden Administration needs this heightened tension, this slaughter of innocents in Gaza, Israel’s continuing “playing the victim” to the hilt to keep the propaganda war going, laying the groundwork for what could be the biggest U.S. military intervention in the Middle East in its history. Once again, as the Israelis did with the Palestinians, Washington underestimates its opponents. It has not “Plan B” (starting with a ceasefire) as its behemoth war machine is assembled into place for what could disintegrate into both a regional and global conflict, the prospect consequences of which are chilling to even consider.

Too many unknowns. Perhaps all this can be avoided. But if such an escalation does take place, the likelihood is that it will not be the “cakewalk” the U.S. led invasion of Iraq was in 2003. It’s going to go very wrong. Furthermore there are indications that the White House is rattled and in a quandary as to how far to push the situation militarily. Bogged down in a proxy war in Ukraine, openly threatening and sable rattling with China over Taiwan, Washington intends to open, not a second but a third major front of military confrontation in the Middle East?

At the same time, it talks of continuing to escalate the (losing) war in Ukraine, escalate the crisis in the Middle East because if we (USA) don’t the Chinese are more likely to attack us on Taiwan. The Biden Administration thinks that by starting a Middle East war, it will be easier for the U.S. to face down China. Instead. such a plan of action will leave the USA greatly overexposed and overcommitted. in multiple places.

All this is turning the reality on its head. Are they nuts or have they just drank too much of their own  ideological Kool-Aid? Aside from how the NY Times and Financial Times of London spin it, and how dangerous and misguided the rhetoric has become, should Washington trigger such a war, chances are good, that the result will go horribly wrong for the United States and for Israel.

#################################

Palestine Tet – 1 – Washington’s Response

Palestine Tet – 2 – the Hezbollah Factor

Palestine Tet – 3 – The Wounded Beast Syndrome