Palestine Tet – 14 – In Response to Letters from the Biden Administration, the Saudi Leadership, Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah Puts Off All-Out Military Offensive. But For How Long?

November 4, 2023

For a week there was much publicity about a speech that Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah was going to give today. The impression given was that he was planning to announce an all out war against Israel in response to Israeli savage bombing of Gaza causing a humanitarian crisis of earthshaking proportions.

True that in the days prior to the Nasrallah’s speech there was an uptake on fighting between Hezbollah positions in S. Lebanon and in northern Israel with a number of missiles being exchanged on both sides producing casualties. Rumors that a second front against Israel were about to open abounded. But the scope of the military exchanges remain limited. At a number of places in his speech, Nasrallah calls for “patience”, not once if I remember but twice.

Although there was much sharp criticism of both Israel and the United States in Nasrallah’s remarks, he refrained from announcing an anticipated “all-out war”call which many in the West fear. What was going on to have stayed its hand? Hard to say other than something did come up.

If a regional war can be avoided, why not?

While militarily it seems from the mainstream media that Israel has the upperhand and that it can exact conditions on Hamas and Hezbollah et al,  truth be told that Washington and Israel’s position is fast deteriorating. They are increasingly isolated internationally. As noted in an earlier blog piece, Washington has the jitters as the political initiative has shifted to its adversaries.  There is no way for the Biden Administration to avoid negotiating with both Hezbollah and Hamas, nor will Hamas be eliminated, exterminated or whatever frenzied plan Netanyahu has for them. This is simple realism. A former colleague at the University of Denver’s Korbel School of International Studies used to repeat her No 1 rule of negotiations: If Washington and Tel Aviv keep repeating that they refuse to negotiate then that is exactly what they are doing

There are reports over the past few days prior to Nasrallah’s speech that both the United States and Saudi Arabia  sent letters to Nasrallah through the intermediary of both Nabih Berri, speaker of the Lebanese Parliament and a leader of the Amal Party as well as through Lebanon’s Minister of the Interior, Bassam Mawlawi. That the letters were delivered through these intermediaries appears to be verified, although their content is not. The speculation is that the letters asked Nasrallah to hold off on announcing a full scale offensive and to give both Washington and Riyadh the time to see if some deal can be negotiated behind the scenes with the Israelis that can lead to a genuine disengagement.

There are reports over the past few days prior to Nasrallah’s speech that both the United States and Saudi Arabia  sent letters to Nasrallah through the intermediary of both Nabih Berri, speaker of the Lebanese Parliament and a leader of the Amal Party as well as through Lebanon’s Minister of the Interior, Bassam Mawlawi. That the letters were delivered through these intermediaries appears to be verified, although their content is not. The speculation is that the letters asked Nasrallah to hold off on announcing a full scale offensive and to give both Washington and Riyadh the time to see if some deal can be negotiated behind the scenes with the Israeli’s that can lead to a genuine disengagement.

Given the current situation it is not difficult to imagine that it is Hezbollah, Hamas and their allies in Iraq, Yemen, Syria and Iran that would dictate the political terms of any negotiations – and not Israel nor Washington. In terms of opening a second military front or not doing so, frankly, it is Hezbollah that has “red lines” and shapes the terms of any negotiations. Given how explosive the overall situation remains throughout the region, why not give one last effort for peacemaking a chance? 

The Biden Administration has screwed up every step of the way in this confrontation. It’s unlikely after giving Netanyahu a green light to bomb Gaza civilians to smithereens, to arm West Bank settlers to shoot Palestinian males on sight, that it can reign in the forces of war it has let loose. The proverbial genie has been let out of the bottle; putting it back in is not so simple. Indeed, more and more it appears that the Administration is clueless, with no strategy, reacting to and not defining the flow of events which are increasingly outside of their control.

Biden and his team of halfwits – they are little more – Blinken, Sullivan, etc. – bear responsibility for this war along with Israel. Let it be said openly, this Administration has blood on its hands and having largely encouraged and created this crisis, it is highly unlikely they can extricate themselves from it. Still, even after all this, if the Biden Administration can reign in Israel  at this late moment, and implement a “humanitarian ceasefire”, an “extended humanitarian ceasefire” or “an immediate ceasefire” whatever it’s called, why not “give peace a chance.”

It is not Israel that is dictating the famous “red lines”, but Hezbollah, chief among them:

• If the Israeli offensive intensifies or if Netanyahu does launch an all out ground offensive in Gaza then any “pause” on the part of Hezbollah and other allies of the Axis of Resistance is off.
• I would imagine that there is a time limitation to consider how long Hezbollah will wait. A week? Ten days? It’s hard to believe it would be longer.
• Can the U.S. and the Saudis actually successfully pressure Israel, be it privately, or more openly, to move towards a ceasefire? Given the degree to which the Israeli government is permeated with religious fanatics who are talking about leveling Gaza and openly calling for ethnic cleansing, the prospect is unlikely.

Is Washington’s call for a pause anything more than an excuse to rearm Israel and give it breathing space to win back some of Israel’s collapsing international support? As soon as this war started, Washington propped up Israel with another $14 billion and opened its military storage facility in Israel to offer more arms and did nothing to pressure Israel to de-escalate.

But why not give this floundering, inept, delusional, pathetic Biden Administration whose approach to this conflict have been both stupid and cruel one last chance to save the day, mostly for itself and for its even more delusional proxy, Israel? The ball is in Israel’s court now with a thin window of opportunity for Netanyahu to respond by clear steps of de-escalation.   Nor is there a ceasefire, far from it.

Meanwhile the dogs of war continue to bark more and more loudly every day. Silencing them would be no mean feat.

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