Palestine Tet – 36 – Humanitarian Pause 2. (Don’t Get Too Excited)

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To the contrary, not only will Hamas “survive” but outside a narrowing circle of NATO countries, its regional and international prestige is soaring. If Washington were more realistic – which it isn’t – it would understand that it cannot avoid negotiating with a Palestinian delegation that includes Hamas sometime in the future. The days when the U.S. could, among its opponents, pick its preferred negotiating partner, are long over. The Palestinians will decide who represents them and with whom to negotiate.

There is a growing likelihood that despite an uptake in the military confrontation that sooner or later these humanitarian pauses will morph into a more lasting ceasefire, a proper, durable ceasefire, at which time a more serious Palestinian-Israeli negotiating process will begin to take shape, one in which new forces – the BRICS, the Global South will probably play a greater role than they have in the past, perhaps, as some are suggesting, even wresting control of the diplomatic process in the Middle East from Washington’s hands.

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from Rai al Youm, yesterday (November 23, 2023):

For 48 days, the Israeli army has been waging a devastating war on Gaza that has left more than 14,532 martyrs, including more than 6000 children and 4000 women as well as more than 35,000 injured, about 75% of which are children and women, according to the government media office in Gaza.

1.

After a day’s delays, a four day pause in Israel’s genocidal campaign against Gaza, and the Palestinian military response to that, is underway. It is heartening to see Red Cross ambulances and vans involved at the Rafah Crossing exchanging prisoners and seeing loved ones on both sides reunited with family and friends. Any pause in the fighting hints at a further step – a more permanent humanitarian pause leading to a ceasefire, a truce and then setting up a long term internationally negotiated settlement to the Palestinian-Israeli “conflict”.

The word “conflict” is put in quotations because it is, to be more accurate, the latter stage of a Palestinian struggle against Israeli settler colonialism which has run its course since the publication of the Balfour Declaration, a mere memo written by the British government to the Zionist leadership at the end of WW2, giving the latter what Britain had no right to do: the right to develop a Zionist settlement in Palestine. No Palestinian nor Arab entity was consulted or had any voice in its creation.

106 years on the struggle between the Zionist settler colonial project and the Palestinian struggle for national self-determination continue unabated the only different being that Zionism has exchanged Great Britain with the United States for its neo-colonial master.

I mention this, not so much for rhetorical purposes but to clarify that Israel’s conduct, from the unrelenting storming of the Al Aqsa Mosque – the lite the fire on October 7 – to the scramble on Israel’s part to steal and annex more territory in the West Bank carving Palestinian strongholds into little bantustans to the sanctions, blockade and current policy of Gazan Palestinians – all this is planned in Washington and executed in Tel Aviv.

This, the Zionist project in Palestinian and the greater Middle East, is an American run, orchestrated, financed and armed by Washington for its own geopolitical ends. So-called “shared values” take a backseat to “shared interests” – keeping the oil and the profits that come from it flowing, stabilizing the U.S. dollar through oil and gas sales in dollars, propping up reactionary, right-wing Arab governments (Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan come to mind) to be Washington regional water carriers along with Israel.

2.

Josh Paul, former Director in the State Department’s Bureau of Political Military Affairs who resigned over the Biden Administration’s encouragement of the Israeli massacre of Palestinian civilians in Gaza commented:

I welcome the agreement brokered by Qatar that will, it has been reported, provide a pause in fighting, allow for the release of 50 Israeli hostages and 150 Palestinian hostages, and enable more humanitarian aid to flow into Gaza during this period. It is my fervent hope that this pause will be extended into a true and lasting ceasefire, and that all hostages and political prisoners will be released, and that humanitarian aid will flow unimpeded into Gaza, and that a radically re-envisioned peace process can be quickly established that leads to a just and lasting peace: this would be an outcome that is in the interest of all innocent civilians.

Paul, whom Joel Edelstein and I interviewed on KGNU recently, went on to worry that the Israeli offensive will pick up again:

I am concerned, however, by both public reporting and discussions I have had with U.S. officials that this will not be the case, and that once the anticipated truce has expired, Israel will continue its military operations, including by pushing into Southern Gaza. I am equally concerned by reports, again from both public reporting and personal contacts, that the U.S. Government remains committed to supporting Israel’s military operations, including through the continued and expedited provision of lethal weaponry without, as the National Security Council Spokesperson has previously said, any redlines.

Concerning the pause, Elijah Magnier notes:

These ceasefires do not necessarily indicate a fundamental shift in long-term goals or strategies but rather reflect a temporary and pragmatic response to the immediate realities of the conflict. The broader goals and strategies often remain in place, with ceasefires as brief interludes in ongoing and protracted conflicts

So it is with this humanitarian pause.

3.

Concerning “the pause”, just a few salient remarks observations, the first of which is …

What are the details of the pause:

• It includes the suspension of all Israeli military operations throughout the Gaza Strip
• The suspension of Israeli air strikes and air traffic in the southern part of Gaza
• The suspension of Israeli air traffic in Northern Gaza for six hours a day from 10 am to 4 pm
• The suspension of Israeli air traffic in Northern Gaza during that period is meant to facilitate allowing Hamas to identify the location of Israeli prisoners held by other resistance groups
• The truce entails the unrestricted entry of trucks carrying humanitarian aid and fuel to the entirety of Gaza without any exceptions
• A guarantee of freedom of movement in Gaza from the north to the south along the Salah ah Din Road
• The release of fifty Israeli prisoners consisting of thirty-eight teenagers under the age of 19 and twelve women in exchange in a ratio of 3-to-1
• A release of one hundred and fifty Palestinian women and children held under Israel’s system of administrative detention

There are voices in the media and U.S. government that suggest that despite the violence that Israel is militarily succeeding in achieving its tactical objectives. Beg to differ. Actually such statements are pure fantasy. Starting with its much publicized goal to eliminate Hamas, Israel is not achieving any of its goals, just killing a lot of civilians and turning Gaza into a pile of rumble in an orgy of revenge for October 7, cheered on by its more zealous supporters in the USA and Western Europe

The pause agreement resulted from a number of different factors, first and foremost was the inability of the Israeli military to achieve its stated military goal of destroying the Hamas leadership and its military capabilities including missile launching capacities. Those goals were not achieved. No top tier Hamas leader has been assassinated.

Nor has been able to compel Hamas to unconditionally release its Israeli prisoners. To free even a portion of Israeli prisoners the Netanyahu government has been forced – through the intervention of Qatar and Egypt but still – to negotiate with Hamas, something else it has publicly adamantly refused to do. Hamas and allies have shown its ability to repel Israel’s stated military objectives and forced its hand, to negotiate.

Another factor forced Israel to the negotiating table. Given its murderous targeting of civilian casualties for all the world to see, its unremitting almost daily attacks prior to October 7 of the Al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, Israel finds itself essentially at war with both the whole Islamic World and the Global South. There is now global pressure, both popular and on the state level, on the Biden Administration on the Netanyahu government to bring Israel’s campaign of ethnic cleansing and war crimes approaching genocide to an end quickly or suffer unprecedented losses in influence and prestige.

There is also pressure within Israel to come to some kind of deal (with Hamas) to free Israeli prisoners which the IDF was unable to accomplish on its own through the bombing campaign and limited ground invasion of Gaza itself. Colonel Douglas MacGregor notes that as Israel’s war on the civilian population of Gaza is resulting in its gowning diplomatic isolation:

“A red line for the Muslim world has been crossed by Israel; Israel is finding itself at war with the entire Islamic World; Israel is going to be isolated from a large part of the rest of the world. We (the USA) is going to wind up being Israel’s only true friend. How much can that work to sustain Israel is the question.”

It remains to be seen if the pause will be extended into a more permanent ceasefire.  Unfortunately, the signs are mounting that the violence will soon continue; these signs far outweigh those suggesting peace is at hand.

4.

The main reason to my mind that the pause  will not last is because Washington still wants to give the Netanyahu another chance to destroy Hamas, “decapitate” its leadership, whatever. The Biden Administration believes in the delusional notion that Hamas can be destroyed or at least. its leadership eliminated. But it must be done quickly in order to freeze the global wave of

To the contrary, not only will Hamas “survive” but outside a narrowing circle of NATO countries, its regional and international prestige is soaring. If Washington were more realistic – which it isn’t – it would understand that it cannot avoid negotiating with a Palestinian delegation that includes Hamas sometime in the future. The days when the U.S. could, among its opponents, pick its preferred negotiating partner, are long over. The Palestinians will decide who represents them and with whom to negotiate.

A long term genuine ceasefire to end the most egregious war crimes being committed is not in the cards for the moment. Expect by Monday, with the Thanksgiving weekend behind it, Netanyahu’s army will be at it again full force with even bigger missile attacks, and perhaps a renewed ground effort in Gaza itself.

The fact that Washington recently showered Israel’s killing machine with billions more in funding and an additional pile of new U.S. weapons, and all that with no conditions, signals the degree to which the Biden Administration’s more tempered rhetoric these past few days is simply a short pause between rounds of fighting;,

Washington still expects Israel to “mow the lawn” in Gaza If there is any doubt as to Israeli intentions, here are the words of its defense minister, Yoav Gallant:

He (Gallant) said after his meeting with his Italian counterpart, Guido Crosetto, at the headquarters of the Israeli Ministry of Defense in Tel Aviv: “There will be a short (humanitarian truce) pause, and after that we will continue to work with full military force.”
He added: “We will not stop until we achieve our goals: destroying Hamas and returning the hostages from Gaza to Israel – there are 240 hostages and this is something we cannot accept and cannot tolerate.”

So much for the pause being extended.

5.

There is a global dimension to the war on Gaza that is less appreciated here in the United States.

The center of gravity in Middle East diplomacy is shifting away from the United States. There is growing international agreement that, once this immediate conflict comes to its military end, the process of achieving a long-term sustainable resolution of this crisis between Palestinians and Israelis is slipping from American hands.

There is a growing likelihood that despite an uptake in the military confrontation that sooner or later these humanitarian pauses will morph into a more lasting ceasefire, a proper, durable ceasefire, at which time a more serious Palestinian-Israeli negotiating process will begin to take shape, one in which new forces – the BRICS, the Global South will probably play a greater role than they have in the past, perhaps, as some are suggesting, even wresting control of the diplomatic process in the Middle East from Washington’s hands.

Unlikely?

U.S. and Israeli prestige and influence in the Middle East is plummeting and won’t recover even after the fighting starts. Meanwhile China has already shown increased regional influence having brought the unlikely adversaries of Saudi Arabia and Iran together in a more cooperative posture. Russian prestige is also strong having helped save the Assad government from defeat at the hands of U.S. backed jihadi proxies.

Everything in the Middle East is up in the air. Will a peace phoenix arise from the ashes? There is a chance, and with it hope, however dim, that the prospects for peace remain, however dim, still on the horizon.