Once More, The Specter of a US and/or Israeli Military Strike Against Iran Loom
(note – this article has been `rediscovered’ [april 16, 2013] and suddenly there are hundreds of hits on the entry, most of them, it appears, from brazil! hello brazil! good. nearly three years after it was written – there has been no full scale u.s. led military attack on iran. there has been some of the most punishing and inhumane sanctions in modern history, all kinds of subversion against the regime. at the same time events in syria tend to isolate the iranian regime more. but make no mistake: the goal is regime change, otherwise known as overthrowing another government. oh yes, if anything, the u.s. regional military build up continues. rjp)
by Imam Ibrahim Kazerooni and Rob Prince
(Note – an edited version of this has been submitted to some newspapers that are, to our surprise, threatening to print it; we’ll see. Also want to add, a few days after this has been submitted, the article by Jeffrey Goldberg in the on-line version of Atlantic Monthly suggesting more or less the same thing as Kazerooni and Prince – but with a slightly altered timeline of `sometime before the end of next summer.’ Goldberg seems to be defending such a loopy course of action)
Reading the signs…
Signs – coming from a number of different sources – suggest that some kind of major US-Israeli military offensive could be in the offing between now and the November mid-term elections. Among them
- A background of one of the largest regional military buildups in modern time, the creation of military and `floating bases’, the intensive arming through arms sales and grants of U.S. regional allies with sophisticated modern weapons and delivery systems. This was perhaps the only `new’ element in what former U.S. Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice referred to as the creation of `a new Middle East.’
- New warnings of possible US/Israeli military action coming from the Friends Committee on National
Legislation, the National Iranian American Council, Time’s columnist Joe Klein (An Attack On Iran Is Back On The Table – July 15) – among others
- A bizarre July 31 piece in the Washington Post by Ray Tayeyh and Steven Simon arguing that the United States should only attack Iran’s nuclear facilities and then `signal’ the Iranians that the bombing would stop and that the goal was not to overthrow the regime. This is part of a larger and mostly hidden debate within the administration over how extensive the bombing should be.
- Articles by neo-conservative columnists Reuel Marc Gerecht and William Kristol calling for a military strike.
- Admiral Mike Mullen’s August 2 admission that the United States `has plans’ to attack Iran to prevent that country from producing nuclear weapons
- An August 4 open letter from former intelligence officers to President Obama warning that Israel could be planning to attack Iran and draw the United States into the conflict
- The Obama Administration’s stalling to issue the new National Intelligence Estimate on Iran. It will be secret and its conclusions will either be leaked or released in summary. Sources inside the intelligence community insist that it will support the 2007 NIE that concluded that Iran no longer has a weapons program. The White House has delayed the process seeking harder language to justify a range of options against Iran, including a military strike, but the analysts are reported to be resisting.
- Last but not least, the introduction of H.R. 1553 into the House of Representatives which provides explicit support for military strikes against Iran, stating that Congress supports Israel’s use of “all means necessary” against Iran “including the use of force”.
House Resolution 1553…a green light to attack Iran?
Of these, the introduction of HR 1553, currently making its way through House committees with more than 40 sponsors, expressing full support for an Israeli attack on Iran has opened the gate for to push the
US into military action should support Israel to attack Iran. It has long been the goal of Netanyahu’s government and the neo-conservative members of the Bush government that are still influential in the Obama Administration to support an attack by Israel so that the United States can be drawn into direct, full-scale war with Iran. This has been Israel’s Iran strategy. Israel needs to know that the United States will finish the war that Israel wants to start.
Although this kind of sabre-rattling is not new, it has reached a new pitch, suggesting that military action against Iran could be in the works. There is some evidence that the United States drew up plans to attack Iran as early as 1995. In 2007, it appeared that the Bush Administration was close to proceeding with a major attack when the National Intelligence Estimate was made public that Iran did not have a nuclear weapons program.
In one of the few times in his presidency, Bush over-ruled his vice president, Dick Cheney (who favored proceeding with military action all the same) to stop the military plans. Admiral Mullen was sent to Israel to `deliver the message’ of no war clearly and unambiguously. The Israelis were reported to have been `furious’ with the change in plans at the time. One of the most disturbing elements of the current escalation of tension is Barack Obama’s failure to do precisely the same thing: reign in Netanyahu.
The Israelis in particular and their more zealous supporters in the USA (AIPAC, neo-cons, ) have worked for three years, virtually tirelessly, to rebuild support for a military strike. Their efforts appear to have succeeded, at least in part. And other groups like J-Street, while not supporting a military strike, have supported the sanctions against Iran and generally bought into the myth that Iran is an `existential threat’ to Israel, rather than the other way round.
Arguments Against A US-Israeli Attack…
In an email a few days ago, a friend put the case against a US-Israeli attack against Iran succinctly
I’m sure the US and Israel would love to hit Iran. Even with the saber-rattling, it’s hard to believe they’ll do it because
1. Iran can hit the US hard in both Iraq and Afghanistan where the US has more than it can handle now; most of the top Pentagon brass knows this and Gates, Admiral Mullen, etc. have said that it would be nuts to hit Iran;
2. it would provoke really harsh opposition by China, Russia, Brazil, Turkey and numerous countries that the US needs for more important things;
3. Iran can probably stop shipping in the Red Sea, etc.
I think that if they could do it, they would have already done it. It would be suicidal but suicide is often a psychotic response and there are definitely psychotics in Israel and DC pushing for it.
All these are reasonable arguments and we hope they carry the day. Perhaps they will. But each of them can be challenged in some ways. the United States these past years – and certainly Israel for an even longer time – have a tendency to deal with the crises they have created by escalation. With a few exceptions, Israel has most of its existence `resolved its problems with its neighbors’ by the use of force. It is deeply ingrained in the national psyche to resort to military, rather than diplomatic means to implement policy. And while we agree with Andrew Bacevich’s call for the Obama Administration to end the U.S. policy of permanent war, close the foreign bases and bring home the troops, it does not appear that we’re anywhere near that. To the contrary.
How has the United States dealt with the crisis in Iraq, far from resolved? It invaded, or re-invaded Afghanistan. They might do it again, despite the rational – and they are rational – arguments my friend presented. Besides, recall that before the 2003 US invasion of Iraq, there were also many voices using the `rational logic’ to argue that that particular invasion would not take place, but it did. The U.S seems intent on maximizing its military position in the region as quickly as possible. That was the essence of the Bush-Cheney policy. Unfortunately, despite his Nobel Peace Prize – poorly deserved – Barack Obama’s Middle East foreign policy is hardly different …despite the softer rhetoric. A fine speech in Cairo does not a foreign policy make.
But to respond directly to our friend: As mentioned above, Admiral Mullen this past week has changed his tune, it is more strident and `suggesting’ military action is possible. The United States was able to largely neutralize both China and Russia on UN Sanctions most recently, although they still were able to somewhat waterdown the resolution. Regardless, their opposition to a military strike seems less firm than it has been in the past. And while Turkey has opened up a certain breech with Israel, their military coordination and cooperation through NATO remains quite strong and NATO, it appears, is `on board’ for a strike.
Add to that the way that the U.S. seems to be continually underestimating Iran’s ability to strike back militarily. Of course we’re not military analysts, but to compare Iran today with Iraq in 2003, after it had suffered defeat
in the first Gulf War and then 12 years of crippling sanctions is way off the mark. Iran is a much stronger country militarily than Iraq was then and while we don’t underestimate the ability of the United States and its allies to wreak horrific damage on Iran, Iran has had a long time to prepare for such eventualities. Add to this that the Iranians, through the Revolutionary Guard (which represents about half of its military strength, the other half being the conventional Iranian military), have the most ideologically oriented military in the world, we would argue that an Iranian response could be devastating where it hurts – the Saudi oil fields, Persian Gulf oil shipping and the possibility of considerable destabilization of the US position in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well, we assume of hurting Israel.
Finally, keep in mind that the United States and Israel are not the only military powers in the region capable of pre-emptive military strikes. Who knows, if the Iranians feel completely cornered and have come to conclude that there is no way to avoid an attack, perhaps they will, from a military point of view, take the initiative themselves as their way of dealing with what they perceive as the inevitable battle. We’re not saying this is their policy, just that such a response is not entirely out of the realm of possibility.
New Dangerous elements…
There are a few other elements that make the current moment especially dangerous.
- For all the talk of U.S.-Israeli strains, the NATO-US-Israel military structure in the Middle East is fully integrated. In Israel the thinking about striking Iran is `if not now, when?’. Momentum is building for a strike.
- There appears to be support for such a strike from key US Arab allies, in particular Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Recently Egypt let 10 US and one Israeli warships through the Suez Canal headed towards the Persian Gulf. There have also been reports that the Saudis would permit Israel use of its airspace to attack Iran. The fact that the Saudis have issued public denials does not necessarily mean that it won’t happen. It is also possible that the Kurdish regions of Iraq, Azerbaijan or Georgia could be used by the Israeli’s to facilitate an attack.
- The Netanyahu government believes, according to some sources, that with the US mid term elections approaching, the U.S. will not be able to reign in Israeli military actions (wherever they might strike) and that furthermore, at this time, Israel is more likely to drag the United States into fighting – which they very much want and hope to do.
- Meanwhile public opinion in the United States has shifted from a position against to one in favor of a military strike against Iran. Only a few years ago only 1/3 of Americans polled supported military action against Iran, now that figure is close to 57% – probably a response to the Iranian crackdown on its democratic movement last summer, as well as AIPAC and the neo-con’s unrelenting pressure.
- Before the 2003 US led invasion of Iraq there were worldwide demonstrations; today there is hardly a whimper from the peace movement or major public figures either here or abroad. True, in 2003 the plans were for a full scale ground invasion and while now, the discussion, the public discussion anyhow, is `limited to air strikes’. However, more and more it has been admitted that these airstrikes will not be limited to Iranian nuclear facilities but would probably be aimed a striking a devastating and crippling blow against the whole country, its infrastructure and political command system.
Although on paper, Israelis and their lobbyists base their argument for war on a fanciful scenario of Iran doling out nuclear weapons to Islamic extremists all over the Middle East, their more likely objective is to destroy Iran’s Islamic regime (Regime Change) in a paroxysm of U.S. military violence. David Wurmser, formerly a close
adviser to Benjamin Netanyahu and Dick Cheney’s main adviser on the Middle East during revealed that he had advocated a U.S. war on Iran, not to set back the nuclear program but to achieve regime change.
The idea of waging a U.S. war of destruction against Iran is obvious lunacy, which is why military leaders have strongly resisted it in both Bush and Obama Administrations. Even though Israel, not Iran, has increasingly been regarded around the world as a rogue state after the Gaza incursion and the commando killings of unarmed civilians on board the Mavi Marmara, its grip on the U.S. Congress appears as strong as ever. AIPAC has once again flexed its muscle, making it clear with the introduction of this resolution, that it can push Congress to bend Obama into submission on the Iran issue. It appears that Democrats in Congress, are mentally in a different galaxy than they were under Bush, are, in large measure, willing to go along, making clear that the U.S. Iran policy has bipartisan support. It is a mistake thus, to place all the blame for this wreckless policy on the Republicans.
Attacking Iran needs to be understood as a part of a broader global US long term strategy of using its network of military bases worldwide as a way of maintaining its declining hegemony. `Neutralizing Iran’ is something of a `medium term’ goal, with the longer term goal being able to `pre-empt’ a Chinese challenge, even it is decades a way.
Netanyahu must be rubbing his hand with glee about the prospects for pressuring Obama to join an Israeli war of aggression against Iran. It was Netanyahu, after all, who declared in 2001, “I know what America is. America is a thing you can move very easily, move it in the right direction. They won’t get in the way.”
– Paul Rogers. Israel vs Iran: fallout of a war (July 15, 2010)
– Jamal Abdi. Resolution Green-Lighting Israel Strikes on Iran Introduced by House Republicans(July 23, 2010)
– Tony Karon. On Iran, Liberals Are Enabling Another Disastrous War. (July 31, 2010)
– Anthony Dimaggio. Lurching Toward War? Iran Under Siege . July 31, 2010
– Michel Chossudovsky. Preparing For World War III, Targeting Iran/Part 1:Global Warfare.August 1, 2010
– Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity. Former Intelligence Officers warn Israel may attack Iran this month and drag US into another war; discuss ways to stop it (August 4, 2010)
– William Blum. Bombing Iran: Taking The World Down With Them. August 6, 2010
– Mahar Abedin. The Illusion of Limited War Against Iran. August 9, 2010
– Trita Parsi. A Campaign For War With Iran Begins . August 13, 2010
– `When All Else Fails Bomb Iran’ R. Prince. June 7, 2007
– `Iran and US Jiu-Jitsu in the Middle East.’ R. Prince. July 30, 2007
– `Taking Spiritualism To A New Level: Kazerooni and Prince Among The Unitarians’ from July 26, 2007. Note – just a few weeks ago, we ventured back into that world to speak about Tom Engelhardt’s book `The American Way of War.’
– `Will The US Attack Iran?’ I. Kazerooni and R. Prince. September 30, 2007
– `War With Iran: More Than A Possibility’ – I. Kazerooni. July 3, 2008
– `Iran’s Nuclear Threat: Real or Fiction? Part One’ – I. Kazerooni. October 4, 2008
– `Iran’s Nuclear Threat: Real or Fiction? Part Two‘ – I. Kazerooni. October 13, 2008