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High-Noon-in-the-middle-east-the-danger-of-a-major-middle-east-confligration-if-the-vienna-talks-on-the-jcpoa-iran-nuclear-deal-fail-kgnu-hemispheres-middle-east-dialogues-april-27-2021 – Part Three

May 1, 2021
China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi (R) shakes hands with Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zari. China And Iran Approach Massive $400 Billion Deal

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(Note: if you are listening to the audio, Part Two starts at 26 minutes and 17 seconds into the program and ends at 40 minutes and 7 seconds.

We talk about Israel some. But at this point I want the emphasize the following: what it looks like from where I’m sitting in my vantage point high in the Rockies is something that that the mainstream media is not seeing. That is that Israel is experiencing a geopolitical crisis at the moment and the geopolitical transition that we have been talking about has confused it at the very least and it’s not sure how to deal with it. And for all its own military power and support from Washington, its options are limited.

Rob Prince

I tend to agree that politically or militarily the Europeans might be stuck in the American camp but economically they have to look to China because it is in developing that relationship that the possibility of economic expansion could take place. But for the Europeans, the fact that Chinese went to remove Iran as a market (for Europe) right under the nose of the Europeans and have turned Iran into a market for the Chinese – it’s going to be a huge loss for Europe.

Ibrahim Kazerooni

Continued from Part Two…

Ibrahim Kazerooni: Can I interject?

I tend to agree with Rob that politically or militarily the Europeans might be stuck in the American camp but economically they have to look to China because it is in developing that relationship that the possibility of economic expansion could take place. But for the Europeans, the fact that Chinese went to remove Iran as a market (for Europe) right under the nose of the Europeans and have turned Iran into a market for the Chinese – it’s going to be a huge loss for Europe.

The Europeans are feeling the pain and yet because they cannot severe the umbilical chord they have to “look the other way “ and accept this loss.

Yesterday we heard that a concerted effort is being taken by the Europeans to force the United States to drop all the sanctions and come to the negotiations so as to limit the economic and trade damage Europe is suffering as China moves in. Because if this continues, Iran will use take advantage of their new economic relations with China and Europe will have lost an important market.

It’s going to be very hard for Europe – let’s say – once Iran reaches the level of 60% uranium enrichment to persuade the Iranians to turn back to Europe – after increasing its trade relations with China to such a degree.

There is a significant different (in terms of uranium enrichment) between the Libyan case and the Iranian case. The Iranian case is an in-house reseach development program. It primarily is based upon the knowledge and technology developed in Iran. It is not some kind of package purchased from abroad with the United States or some other country sharing outside technology, with the purchasing country just assembling the product.

Once the knowledge is gained and the path to enrichment is reached, Iran is moving towards “the North Korean model” or the Pakistani model or the Indian model. There is no return. That is why – Rob and I when we were discussing this program beforehand – this idea that Iranians are expressing in the Vienna negotiations – “Take It or Leave It” – that the Iranians are presenting to the United States is causing a huge amount of discomfort for Washington.

Keep in mind that in 2015 the Europeans immediately used the opportunity of the completion of the agreement (JCPOA) to increase their dealings with Iran. The airline industry, oil, and other technologies rushed to Teheran. Then Trump threatened to impose economic sanctions on any country, company that made economic deals with Iran and they (the European companies) had no other alternative but to back down.

For the Europeans, this is a crisis of their own making.

On the one hand, they (the Europeans) understand how much Washington’s policies are hurting them. On the other hand they don’t want to break their security ties with the United States. So this is what happened, the sanctions against Iran created a vacuum – and this is what the Russians and the Chinese are taking advantage of at Europe’s expense.

Rob, do you want to add anything?

Rob Prince: Since 1991, there has been no counter forec globally to U.S. Imperialism. Whatever the Soviet Union was – whatever problems it had – it was a counter force which limited U.S. global options to a certain extent.

Between 1991 and a few years ago, that was “the ball game” and that resulted in Washington’s “hyper arrogance” on the part of Washington, the sense that it could dictate policy everywhere in the world with the rest of the world submitting to its will. To pressure the rest of the world to bend to their will, Washington developed a new form of warfare – well, if you study History carefully it’s not even that new, just reshaped and intensified – it’s called hybrid warfare.

According to hybrid warfare – actually military warfare is a small component of the overall package. Economic warfare, sanctions, subversion, misinformation, all these othe mechanisms short of outright invasion has been the main focus of modern war making.

But what has emerged in the past three, four years – a new counter force and that new counterforce is China. I was just thinking about all this the other day. Up until 1991, the counterforce to U.S. global expansion is the Soviet Union with China as a kind of subsidiary factor. Now the balance has shifted; China is the main counterforce and Russia is something of a junior partner. Russia needs Chinese support and cooperation in the same way that Iran does.

I mention this because that’s the new geo-political reality.

I bring all this up because I am in constant arguments with friends – especially about Syria, but also now about Ethiopia – they have good minds and they are thoughtful people but something is missing when they talk about these subjects and that “something” is their lack of understanding – or even interest in – geopolitics.

What is it that had given Iran the new verge and energy that it can stand up to the United States.

Let’s remember that after Soleimani was assassinated – a cold blooded horrible act if you think about it – Iran responds by bombing a U.S. base in Iraq, the al Asad Air Base – this is the first time since the end of World War II that there has been an open military attack against a U.S. installation by another country.

Ibrahim Kazerooni: Not only that Rob. Not only did Iran bomb al Asad but the U.S. “swallowed the attack” without responding.

Rob Prince: Yes

The U.S. “swallowed it.”

Interestingly enough, Ibrahim, in the last week or so, an American General who, more than a year later, has publicly started to analyze the consequences of that missile attack.

What are the main points?

  1. That U.S. radar did not detect the missiles given all the fancy radar that the Unites States has in the Middle East dpest the fact that the missiles traveled long distances.
  2. The missiles were very accurate

This attack was “a message” and this general understood it: If the United States (or one of its allies) attacks Iran that the Iranians are in a position to retaliate in such a way as to seriously hurt U.S. allies and interests in the region.

There are 35 military bases around Iran, who knows how many naval vessels both in the Persian Gulf and near by. They have all morphed from being an offensive threat to Iran into targets for Iranian (or other) missiles.

All this factors into what is taking place in Vienna.

Ibrahim Kazerooni: This idea that Iran has the military means to retaliate is important. MacKenzie admitted it as well. In an interview yesterday or the day before he commented that the U.S. has to accept the fact that we need to reshape our policy in the Middle East being mindful of the strength of the Iranian military.

Rob Prince: In the same way that Iranian missile striking the al Asad base in Iraq was something of a shock in Washington, a couple of days ago, what happens?

Syria launches a missile into Israel. It landed 30 kilometers from Israel’s Dimona Nuclear Plant. This is the plant in Israel that produces nuclear weapons. Keep in mind that 35 years ago already, whistleblower Mordecai Vanunu claimed that Israel already had at that time 200 or more nuclear weapons.

The Syrians shoot one missile into Israel.

How many missile attacks has Israel launched against Syria? Hundreds? Thousands? Hundreds of times Israel bombs Syria. Syria on the other hand sends one missile into Israel that lands in an uninhabited area. The explosion is heard all over Israel, in the West Bank and Gaza but no one is hurt, no property is destroyed.

Israeli response?

The Israeli’s are going ballistic. It’s all over the Israeli press. If it hasn’t been covered that much in the American media this is not unusual once again.

The point is that both Israel and the United States find themselves in this strange position, strange in terms of where they have been historically. They find themselves geopolitically on the defensive. This is new for them and neither Washington nor Tel Aviv have responded well to this new situation.

Ibrahim, do you think that is exaggerated to define their situation as such?

Ibrahim Kazerooni: Far from it

You spoke of the number of attacks the Israelis conducted against Syria. Show me one attack from Gaza against Israel that the Israelis have not responded to. Two days ago the Gazans attacked with ten or fifteen missiles and the Israelis decided not to respond.

They are afraid of escalation.

Rob Prince: Ibrahim maybe we should explore Israel’s role in a little more depth.

We talk about Israel some. But at this point I want the emphasize the following: what it looks like from where I’m sitting in my vantage point high in the Rockies is something that that the mainstream media is not seeing. That is that Israel is experiencing a geopolitical crisis at the moment and the geopolitical transition that we have been talking about has confused it at the very least and it’s not sure how to deal with it. And for all its own military power and support from Washington, its options are limited.

Ibrahim Kazerooni: This is exactly what one of the retired generals noted in today’s news.

In one of today’s Middle Eastern news sources, a comment was made about the shambles in which the Israeli government finds itself and its inability to understand – the term they used – the new dynamic in the region.

2 Comments leave one →
  1. Gene Fitzpatrick permalink
    May 3, 2021 1:32 pm

    Sensing the Yankee school-yard bully’s perplexity and discomfort gives a sensation of good old fashioned schadenfreude as one finally gets to witness the American thugs hobble around in confusion while the smarter thugs on the block eat their lunch with a certain contemptuous dismissiveness.

Trackbacks

  1. High Noon In the Middle East – The full transcript… | View from the Left Bank: Rob Prince's Blog

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