Middle East at a Crossroads? Maybe. Are the current negotiations once again, a road to nowhere … or a serious step to end the genocide?

We are at some kind of turning point – very dangerous moment that could ignite regional war or even worse or … the start of something more hopeful. It’s impossible to predict at this moment but, either am I a food at being cautiously optimistic? Just grasping at straws?

So what are the possible directions of the overall crisis – Israel’s genocide, its threats to attack Iran – in the Middle East.

I see a number of possible scenarios playing out:

1. The so-called ceasefire talks between the U.S., Israel, Hamas and the Arab countries are just a ruse meant to ease Israel’s military burdens in Gaza so it can devote all its energies to another, a bigger U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran than they did on June 12 of this year. Highly possible and certainly both mainstream and alternative media have, with few exceptions, predicted as much, including key commentators that I follow. (Alastair Crooke, Danny Haiphong among them).
2. That having lost the veil of a surprise attack and having been hurt – if not mauled by the Palestinian Resistance in Gaza, from Yemeni missile attacks – Israel needs some breathing room to rearm and rework its plans to overthrow the Iranian government. Such an assault is not easily accomplished. Having lost the possibility of surprise, both Israel and the U.S. understand that they have in fact lost the initiative to overthrow the Iranian government. They were counting on the Iranian opposition to rise up (in the June bombings) to overthrow the government. Not only did this not happen but if anything, the Iranian population, including western oriented elements, have rallied in support of the government in face of those bombings. Still such an attack is, despite Netanyahu’s denial, still very much in the cards.
3. The “I-WANT-A-NOBEL-PRIZE” obsession of Trump’s; Weird as it migth sound – don’t underestimate this factor in the mix.. I could be, hard as it is to believe, decisive. Beyond Trump’s megalomania, there are elements in the U.S. power structure, from what I can tell especially in the military that Trump has just insulted who have counseled that it is not at all in U.S. interests to purse a military option against Iran. Also growing opposition to the Israeli genocide among Trump’s MAGA youth base is also a factor that could cause Trump and the Republicans serious defeats in the mid-term elections next year.
4. So the current negotiations. Friends, opponents to U.S-Israel foreign policy have every reason to look at the current negotiations as some kind of theater where the main act will still be a military attack to “decapitate” (I hate that word) the Iranian leadership when its guard is down because negotiations are transpiring. How can we NOT distrust what Trump and Netanyahu are upto? We’ve seen how negotiations have played out before – in military action, mass assassinations and continued genocide in Gaza.

Although I have followed U.S. policy in the Middle East closely for much of my adult life, I have long ago given up predictions. Most earlier ones I have made have missed the mark to one degree or another anyway. But to be honest I am cautiously optiminstic that the negotiations currently taking place are serious and could possibly lead to as a genuine ceasefire in Gaza. Of course, I won’t believe that until all the Israeli troops – and their foreign mercenary allies – have left Gaza and the aid trucks have started to roll in uninhibited by the IDF or those sickened Israel civilians who have done everything in their power to block the aid deliveries. AND REGARDLESS, la lutta continua … but under different circumstance. Should this play out in this fashion – a historic win for Palestine and set back of major proportions both for Israel and the USA, who are joined at the hipo anyway.

No need, no reason to give up hope for ending the genocide!