Middle East at a Crossroads? Maybe. Are the current negotiations once again, a road to nowhere … or a serious step to end the genocide? – II

Homecoming In Gaza (source: EuroMed Human Rights Monitor)

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That having lost the veil of a surprise attack and having been hurt – if not mauled by the Palestinian Resistance in Gaza, from Yemeni missile attacks – Israel needs some breathing room to rearm and rework its plans to overthrow the Iranian government. Such an assault is not easily accomplished. Having lost the possibility of surprise, both Israel and the U.S. understand that they have in fact lost the initiative to overthrow the Iranian government. They were counting on the Iranian opposition to rise up (in the June bombings) to overthrow the government. Not only did this not happen but if anything, the Iranian population, including western oriented elements, have rallied in support of the government in face of those bombings. Still such an attack is, despite Netanyahu’s denial, still very much in the cards. 

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Less than a week ago, I wrote a blog column “Middle East at a Crossroads? Maybe. Are the current negotiations once again, a road to nowhere … or a serious step to end the genocide?” In that piece a number of possible scenarios were explored. Here we are a mere three days later and already the some of the fog has lifted some.

No, the current ceasefire is not a “road to nowhere” although where it is headed remains unclear;

Before launching into where I see where the situation might be going – and here, not surprisingly the emphasis is on more war and greater regional instability in the main – a word or two about the ceasefire.

While shakey with Israel still killing Gazan Palestinians – but at a slower rate – it is holding for the most part. The sight of tens – if not hundreds of thousands of Palestinians returning to north to the wreckage that was their homes in north Gaza – is both hearwarmiong and very important. Returning home, even if “home” is an unrecognizable wreckage. If and how long the ceasefire will last is an open question.

Not only are Gaza Palestinains returning to areas of Gaza that Israel swore they would never give up but Israel hostages are being freed as are hardly spoken of thousands of Palestinian prioners in Israeli jails being released, not without complications, yes, but still a step forward. The release of the Israeli hostages is being widely televised in the United States but the release of Palestinian prisoners, themselves hostages in Israel’s war against Palestine, are hardly given any notice at all.

Is what has been agreed to a “peace deal”?

No. It is a ceasefire and between a cease fire and a peace deal there is difference – un gouffre – as the French would say. While the ceasefire is – more or less – proceeding. It, the ceasefire, is Phase One of a three phase agreement. Even it was smacked together hastily – a real rush job – and with little preparation.

It is in Phases Two and Three that the ceasefire is transformed into a peace agreement. Further at best, if referred to as “a peace” – it is a classic colonial peace in which the main architects are the U.S., Israel and Arab and Muslim reactionary regimes, the Palestinians had no role indeterming their own fate. As such it is little more than the U.S and Israel trying to regain politically at the negotiating table what they have lost – and they HAVE lost – on the battlefield in classic Clauswitzian fashion. Any serious peace agrement will have the Palestianians themselves governing Gaza and all foreign troops removed.

Here the guidelines are, at best, vague, completely undefined, not the result of some serious negotiations process.

As Alastair Cooke, former British diplomat and MI-6 spy, commented:

“Phase Two and Phase Three were never property defined, really never properly thought through, really never properly agreed”.

Thus, the likelihood of proceeding to the next phases is, frankly dim. It provides a pause for Israel and the U.S. to rearm and focus their military activities elsewhere. (More on this in later entries.)

OF COURSE this is not the end, not even the beginning of the end. But it is something quite spectacular, and heartwarming – the U.S-Israeli genocide has been frozen in its tracks. At the least it is a pause in a genocide, a bit of relief, of breathing room and the (temporary?) pause in what has been one of the most horrible genocides of modern history.Most – but not all – of Israeli violence is on hold.

Although the amounts of aid entering Gaza are still, at 400 trucks a day, below the 600 level proposed to seriously address starvation. Medical. Still even now, Israel continues to take “its pound of flesh” suggesting that it will pursue its goals of ethnic cleansing by other means

• As some have noted, in withdrawing from parts of Gaza Israel has left explosives hidden in toys sprinkled among the ruins they have created.
• After the ceasefire was announced, but prior to actually withdrawing, and in a manner reminescent of Nazi-SS practices, the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) “launched an arson spree, setting fire to civilian infrastructure, including the destruction of an essential sanitation plant in Gaza City.”
• So that is assassination campaign continues under the new conditions, Israel has given the green light (as well as both arms and satellite intelligence) to Israeli proxy, Palestinian gangster militia groups that in Gaza, one of which has already assassinated Palestinian blogger/journalist Saleh el Jafarawi
• Nor is it at all clear that  international journalists and investigators will have access to Gaza to evaluate the extent of the damage

More on both the extent of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza which remains profound and will continue far into the future. Still, it is important, and vital to celebrate – even briefly – this development and to share in the joy – the utter relief – in this pause in the genocide, to salute even from afar, the heroic Palestinian people who have chosen staying with all the risks of death, of emotional and physical trauma they have experienced … and could once again be faced with.

Gazans returning north after the October 10 ceasefire announcement

While the Trump Administration will hail this as sone kind of “great victory” for Washington and Tel Aviv, nothing could be further from reality. For a variety of reasons, the ceasefire – supported by all from the most moderate to the most militant and radical of the Palestinian factions – the United States and Israel were anxious for such a result. Facing its continued tensions with China (over Chinese rare earth mineral export limitations) and with Russia over Ukraine (where the U.S. and NATO are on the verge of a major and historic defeat), dampering down Middle Eastern fires is essential to its ability to make war elsewhere.

The United States has been exposed to the world as the main supporter – if not initiator and actual director – of Israel’s Gaza genocide. Some argue thatWashington’s global reputation will never recover. I agree. The narrative, so long defended, of the feisty little democratic outpost in a sea of Arab fanatics and reactionaries has been shattered. For most of the world it is forever. In so many Arab and Muslim countries the population is close to exploding against their governments for inaction over Gaza. In an effort of blatant damage control, Washington’s hastily slapped together this effort to involve Arab countries in some yet to be elaborated Gaza peace keeping force, the idea of which the Israelis already oppose, is little more than an exercise in damage control and fence mending with its Arab “friends” (read proxies).

Any attempt to suggest that this ceasefire is somehow a victory for Israel and Netanyahu is countered by THE FACTS, which include:

• Netanyahu has not defeated the Palestinians nor eliminated Hamas – stated goals at the outset of the genocide. If not entirely exhausted militarily, still it has suffered greatly. The number of killed, wounded Israelis in this war is greater than Israel has ever experienced. It is accustomed to short wars lasting no more than a month. This attack on Gaza has lasted two years.
• Israel remains in great internal turmoil as a result of this war. The cohesiveness of Israel as a unified society has been severely, some say permanented damaged. Israel is today a deeply divided society. Both the moral and practical basis of Zionism has been put into question if not completely undermined.
• Israel’s isolation globally has never been greater as a result of its murderous Gaza campaign. It has become in the eyes of much of the world what many of us have been arguing for decades: that it is a pariah state. It has caused the whole world, including new sectors of the U.S. population (MAGA youth, many more Democrats than previously) to question the ethical basis of the Zionist project, which has lost widespread legitimacy.Long term – and perhaps even earlier, this will have profound consequences – none of which Israel looks forward to.,

So many voices of people I know are completely suspicious of this ceasefire and they are right to be concerned, weary; it is NOT that Israel does not want a ceasefire in Gaza. It does so it can aim its military fire elsewhere. Neutralizing – or at least limiting the military opposition both in Gaza and Lebanon with Hezbollah, is necessary so that Tel Aviv (and
Washington) can concentrate building for war against Iran. On this point, my previous speculation appears to be bearing fruit; what I said in that earlier commentary, I repeat here as it looks to be the emerging geo-political reality:

That having lost the veil of a surprise attack and having been hurt – if not mauled by the Palestinian Resistance in Gaza, from Yemeni missile attacks – Israel needs some breathing room to rearm and rework its plans to overthrow the Iranian government. Such an assault is not easily accomplished. Having lost the possibility of surprise, both Israel and the U.S. understand that they have in fact lost the initiative to overthrow the Iranian government. They were counting on the Iranian opposition to rise up (in the June bombings) to overthrow the government. Not only did this not happen but if anything, the Iranian population, including western oriented elements, have rallied in support of the government in face of those bombings. Still such an attack is, despite Netanyahu’s denial, still very much in the cards.

Making a temporary peace so it can go to war elsewhere. I’ll develop ideas on this new danger in commentaries to come.

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Middle East at a Crossroads? Maybe. Are the current negotiations once again, a road to nowhere … or a serious step to end the genocide? Part One